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Recap | Week Ahead | Yields Lower Thumbnail

Recap | Week Ahead | Yields Lower

“This has been a resilient economy… it has been surprising in its resilience.” - Jerome Powell, 11/1/23

Last week's market recap:

  • The S&P 500 closed the week up 5.88%.  Year-to-date the index is up 15.05%
  • NASDAQ closed the week up 6.62%.  YTD the index is up 29.64%
  • U.S. Aggregate Bond index was up 1.99%.  YTD the index is down -.53%
  • 10-Year Treasury Rate increased, ending the week at 4.57% down from 5.03% the prior week
    • Fed Funds Target rate remains at 5.25-5.50%
  • The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 5.31%  
  • A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 5.48%  

The week ahead:  

  • Earnings: Uber, Disney, Occidental, Rivian, Honda, etc.
  • Quarterly report on Household debt and credit
  • Consumer sentiment index 

What happened at last week’s Fed meeting?

  • Fed left rates unchanged as expected.
  • Full effects of rate hikes have yet to be felt.
  • Policy is currently restrictive.
  • Inflation remains elevated. The Fed is still committed to returning inflation to 2%.
  • They remain data dependent and will make decisions meeting by meeting.
  • Overall, this Fed meeting had a more balanced tone regarding futures rate hikes. Markets rallied.


How can markets rally from here?

  • Bond yields need to avoid a surge higher.  Slightly higher from current levels may be ok, but the US 10 year treasury above 5% would probably put pressure on equity markets.
  • The Fed staying on the sidelines would help. They don’t need to cut, and a hike wouldn’t necessarily tank markets, but remaining on the sidelines would probably be bullish.
  • The labor market continues to show small signs of easing.


We’re seeing an uptick in global central banks cutting interest rates: 

As always, let us know if you have any questions.



CRA Investment Committee

Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA 

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP® 

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP® 

Phillip Tompkins, CFP®


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