facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast phone blog search brokercheck brokercheck Play Pause
Recap | Week Ahead | Why are markets selling off? Thumbnail

Recap | Week Ahead | Why are markets selling off?

“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is very low gravitational pull on asset prices.” – Warren Buffet

Last week's market recap (11/17/25):  

  • The S&P 500 closed the week up .12%. Year-to-date the index is up 15.77%
  • NASDAQ closed the week down -.43%. YTD the index is up 19.24%
  • U.S. Aggregate Bond index closed the week down -.24%. YTD the index is up 6.57%
  • 10-Year Treasury Rate increased, ending the week at 4.14% up from 4.11% the prior week
    • Fed Funds Target rate remains at 3.75-4.00% 
  • The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 3.65%  
  • A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 3.80%  

 

The week ahead:  

  • Housing Starts
  • Existing home sales
  • Import Price Index
  • Corporate Earnings: Nvidia, Home Depopt, Lowe’s, BJ’s Wholesale, Baidu, and many more   

 

Quick Comments (11/18/25):  

The S&P 500 is down -4% from its all-time. 

The Nasdaq is down almost -6.5% from its all-time high. 

Why is the stock market selling off? 

  • Odds of a December interest rate cut have been trending lower over the past two weeks. Stocks want rate cuts.   
  • Valuations have been stretched. This means the market is expensive relative to its earnings. Valuation is not a perfect market timer, but stretched valuations can increase the risk of a correction. 
  • A technical trend broke. The indexes have been above their 50 day moving averages for over 4 months. Staying above this technical level for this long is extremely rare. When this trend breaks, many traders and quant programs sell, and the negative feedback loop intensifies. 
  • Job market warning signs. The labor market is weakening. This data is a balancing act. You can argue that a little bit of job weakness will be good for stock market performance, because it will allow the Fed to cut interest rates; however, the fear is an extremely weak labor market could lead to recession and that would be bad for stocks. 
  • The A.I. theme and mega cap tech companies are being compared to the Dot.com bubble. Click bait headlines are making their rounds, but this comparison is lazy. The largest tech companies in 2025 have delivered on earnings growth and guidance. They remain optimistic and CapEx spending remains robust. The comparison doesn’t match up. 




As always, let us know if you have any questions.


Best,

CRA Investment Committee


Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA 

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP® 

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP® 

Phillip Tompkins, CFP®


    Important Disclosure Information

    Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CRA Financial, LLC [“CRA]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CRA. Please remember to contact CRA, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CRA is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CRA’s current written Disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.crafinancial.com. Please Note: If you are a CRA client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian. 

    Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your CRA account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your CRA accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

    Please Note: Limitations: Neither rankings and/or recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, publications, media, or other organizations, nor the achievement of any professional designation, certification, degree, or license, or any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if CRA is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser. Rankings are generally limited to participating advisers (to the extent applicable). Unless expressly indicated to the contrary, CRA did not pay a fee to be included on any such ranking. No ranking or recognition should be construed as a current or past endorsement of CRA by any of its clients. ANY QUESTIONS: CRA’s Chief Compliance Officer remains available to address any questions regarding rankings and/or recognitions, including the criteria used for any reflected ranking.