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Recap | Week Ahead | Rally Resumes Thumbnail

Recap | Week Ahead | Rally Resumes

“The past wasn’t as good as you remember. The present isn’t as bad as you think. The future will be better than you anticipate.” – Morgan Housel


Last week's market recap 

  • The S&P 500 closed the week up 1.72%. Year-to-date the index is up 26.70%
  • NASDAQ closed the week up 1.77%. YTD the index is up 27.41%
  • U.S. Aggregate Bond index closed the week up .19%.  YTD the index is up 1.52%
  • 10-Year Treasury Rate decreased slightly, ending the week at 4.41% down from 4.43% the prior week
    • Fed Funds Target rate remains at 4.50-4.75%
  • The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 4.39%  
  • A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 4.47%  

 

The week ahead:  

  • Housing Price Index
  • PCE Inflation
  • 2nd Estimate of 3Q 2024 GDP
  • Fed Minutes
  • Earnings: Dell, CrowdStrike, and more

 

Market Comments: 

The post-election rally resumes.  The market hovers near record highs as pro-growth and deregulation expectations outweigh the risk of higher inflation and a more cautious Fed. 

Economic fundamentals are strong.  Growth and the labor market are shifting to be stronger than the Fed expected.  This increases the risk of inflation and the Fed may need to pause or stop cuts sooner than previously expected.  The Fed Fund Futures are showing a 55% chance (down from 60%) of a rate cut in December.

The market isn’t fearing a huge spike inflation, but it may price in a higher terminal rate than previously expected. 

Most investors should maintain their diversification to spread risk.  


Source: JP Morgan Chart of the Week



As always, let us know if you have any questions.

 

Best, 

CRA Investment Committee


Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA 

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP® 

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP® 

Phillip Tompkins, CFP®


 

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