An investor without an investment objective, is like a traveler without a destination.” - Ralph Seger
Last week's market recap:
- The S&P 500 closed the week up 2.31%. Year-to-date the index is up 19.29%
- NASDAQ closed the week up 2.42%. YTD the index is up 35.98%
- U.S. Aggregate Bond index was up 1.37%. YTD the index is up .54%
- 10-Year Treasury Rate increased, ending the week at 4.44% down from 4.61% the prior week
- Fed Funds Target rate remains at 5.25-5.50%
- The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 5.27%
- A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 5.42%
- The bond market is expecting rate cuts to occur in 2024.
The week ahead:
- FOMC meeting minutes
- Nvidia Earnings
- Retail Earnings: Lowes, Best Buy, Dicks Sporting Goods, Nordstrom, etc.
- Shortened trading week. Happy Thanksgiving!
Can November’s rally in both stocks and bonds continue?
The path to lower inflation remains intact. Economic growth appears to be slowing. This should reduce the risk of additional rate hikes from the Fed.
Historically, a Fed pause has been an attractive entry point for both stocks and bonds. The chart below is enticing, but many feel they have missed November’s rally. The last rate hike was on July 26th, 2023. The S&P 500 is down -.75% since July 26th. If July 26th was actually the Fed’s last rate hike, then we may be approaching a sweet spot for both stocks and bonds. November’s rally in both stocks and bonds could continue.
Source: Blackrock – Student of the Market
As always, let us know if you have any questions.
CRA Investment Committee
Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®
Tom Reynolds, CPA
Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®
Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP®
Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®
Joe McCaffrey, CFP®
Phillip Tompkins, CFP®
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