Recap | Week Ahead | Big Week — CRA Financial, LLC

“The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.” – Warren Buffet

Last week's market recap:

The S&P 500 closed the week down -1.66%. Year-to-date the index is up 8.92%
NASDAQ closed the week down -2.88%. YTD the index is up 8.50%
U.S. Aggregate Bond index closed the week down -.80%. YTD the index is down -.68%
10-Year Treasury Rate increased, ending the week at 4.71% up from 4.57% the prior week
Fed Funds Target rate remains at 3.50-3.75%
The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 4.12%
A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 4.04%

The week ahead:

Unemployment
U.S. GDP
PCE (Inflation Data)
U.S. / Iran Conflict
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Corporate Earnings: Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Novartis, Ford, Exxon, and many more.

Quick Comments:

The U.S. / Iran conflict drove markets last week. Oil briefly rose above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields moved higher.
A.I. remains a dominant theme for stocks, but the focus is shifting from CapEx spending to profit durability. Last week, Alphabet and Tesla got punished for spending too much. Are CapEx investments, earnings growth, and returns accelerating or stalling?
Mega Cap tech earnings and a Fed Meeting will share the spotlight this week. The base case is currently a high-for-longer rate view.

Rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields could influence the Fed's policy path and contribute to increased market volatility. However, in this environment, we believe the Fed recognizes that higher interest rates are unlikely to reduce oil prices. Instead, a decline in oil prices will likely depend on easing tensions in the Middle East—an outcome that is outside the Fed's control.

Corporate fundamentals and a resilient economy should allow most investors to remain cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year.

As always, let us know if you have any questions.

Best,

CRA Investment Committee

Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP®

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Phillip Tompkins, CFP®

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