Recap | Week Ahead | Backdrop — CRA Financial, LLC

“The biggest risk is not taking any risk... In a world that is changing rapidly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.” – Mark Zuckerberg

Last week's market recap:

The S&P 500 closed the week up .13%. Year-to-date the index is up 17.66%
NASDAQ closed the week up .49%. YTD the index is up 21.46%
U.S. Aggregate Bond index closed the week up .34%. YTD the index is up 7.09%
10-Year Treasury Rate decreased, ending the week at 4.16% down from 4.19% the prior week
- Fed Funds Target rate remains at 3.50-3.75%
The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 3.52%
A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 3.61%

The week ahead:

3Q 2025 GDP (1st estimate)
Consumer Confidence
Jobless Claims
Stock Market closes at 1pm on Wednesday, and closed on Thursday

Quick Comments:

CPI (Inflation Data) cooled last week. Headline CPI slowed to 2.7% down from 3.1% the previous month, but there was missing October price data due to the government shutdown. It may take another couple of months to get clearer, less distorted data going forward.

The Labor Market has been cooling. Unemployment is rising and hiring has slowed. The unemployment rate is a 4.56% which is he highest in over four years. The higher unemployment rate increases the odds of another rate cut in January.

The current backdrop presents an easing Fed, Fiscal stimulus via the new Tax Bill, fading tariff uncertainty (however the upcoming Supreme Court’s tariff decision could change this), and corporate earnings growth. Most investors should maintain their exposure to A.I. but look for opportunities to broaden their portfolio and search for unique exposures to provide a portfolio ballast.

As always, let us know if you have any questions.

Best,

CRA Investment Committee

Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP®

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Phillip Tompkins, CFP®

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