facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast phone blog search brokercheck brokercheck Play Pause
Recap | Week Ahead | 2023 in a Simple Chart Thumbnail

Recap | Week Ahead | 2023 in a Simple Chart

"The market is rational but investors play different games and those games look irrational to people playing a different game.” – Morgan Housel

Last week's market recap:

  • The S&P 500 closed the week up .89%.  Year-to-date the index is up 9.17%
  • NASDAQ closed the week up 1.28%.  YTD the index is up 17.12%
  • U.S. Aggregate Bond index was up .83% for the week.  YTD the index is up 3.59%
  • 10-Year Treasury Rate decreased, ending the week at 3.44% down from 3.57% the prior week.
    • Fed Funds Target rate is currently 4.75-5.00%
  • The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 4.87%  
  • A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 5.09%  

 

The week ahead:  

  • Fed Meeting:  Most are expecting a 25bp rate hike.  Their comments will be extremely important. 
  • Jobs Date (JOLTS) 
  • Manufacturing and Services PMIs 
  • Earnings: Apple, Starbucks, Pfizer, Big Energy, etc.


Look at the chart below!   

  • The black line represents the S&P 500 year-to-date return of 5.13% through 4/26/23.
  • The top eight companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) contributed 5.57% to the overall S&P 500 performance.
  • Meaning… the other 492 companies contributed -.44% YTD return for the S&P 500 (blue shaded portion).



So, what is the chart saying?...

The overall economy is not seeing the same move as the mega-cap profitable Tech.

  

What this chart isn’t showing?... 

  • Consumer Staples, Industrials and Materials are also positive year-to-date.
  • Financials, and Energy are dragging the “other 492” down the most.

 

Rolling Recession:  

A phrase being used to describe the current economic environment.  Some areas of the economy are contracting, while others expand.  Different sectors of the economy take turns suffering rather than simultaneously.   

 

Financial Planning Note: 

 

What is the current inflation rate for I Bonds?

I bonds Inflation Rate was lowered to 3.38% (1.68% for 6 months).  The Inflation rate changes every six months.  It was recently lowered to an annualized rate of 3.38%.  The good news is this is another sign inflation is easing.  Right now, you can earn more yield in T-Bills!


As always, let us know if you have any questions.

 

Best, 

CRA Investment Committee 

 

Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA 

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP® 

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP® 

Phillip Tompkins 



* https://www.biancoresearch.com/visitor-home/ 

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CRA Financial, LLC [“CRA]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CRA. Please remember to contact CRA, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CRA is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CRA’s current written Disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.crafinancial.com. Please Note: If you are a CRA client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian. 

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your CRA account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your CRA accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Please Note: Limitations: Neither rankings and/or recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, publications, media, or other organizations, nor the achievement of any professional designation, certification, degree, or license, or any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if CRA is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser. Rankings are generally limited to participating advisers (to the extent applicable). Unless expressly indicated to the contrary, CRA did not pay a fee to be included on any such ranking. No ranking or recognition should be construed as a current or past endorsement of CRA by any of its clients. ANY QUESTIONS: CRA’s Chief Compliance Officer remains available to address any questions regarding rankings and/or recognitions, including the criteria used for any reflected ranking.