facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast phone blog search brokercheck brokercheck Play Pause
Recap and the Week Ahead | Bonds Thumbnail

Recap and the Week Ahead | Bonds

There are no bad bonds, only bad prices  – Trader's Axiom 

  Last week's market recap:

  • The S&P 500 was down -1.53% for the week.  Year-to-date the index is down -23.88%.
    • Large-Cap Value leads performance YTD at -16.53%
  • NASDAQ closed the week down -3.11% and is down -33.61% YTD.
  • Barclays Aggregate Bond index is down -15.84% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury Rate increased, ending the week at 4.02% from 3.89% the prior week.
    • Fed Funds Target rate is 3.25%
  •  The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 4.44%
  •  A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 4.33%
    • What is your savings account rate?  If it didn’t increase recently, you may want to find a new savings account.

The week ahead, 10/17: 

  • Earnings Season  
  • Housing Starts
  • Existing Homes Sales
  • Industrial production

Quick Comments:

The September CPI report crushed hopes for lower inflation.  However, a few hours after the disappointing data was released, we saw one of the largest intra-day reversals of all-time.  This is a great example of how markets can act during times of inflation, recessions, war, uncertainty, etc. --- with extreme volatility.  

Simply explaining the numbers…

Services inflation increased more than the decrease in core goods and energy so we had a higher than expected inflation print.

Additionally, the lagged effect of rising rents continues to propel owner's equivalent rent higher.    

What is “owners equivalent rent?”

It represents roughly 25% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  It is determined by a monthly survey of consumers who own a primary residence.  I repeat… determined by a survey!  Not a transaction in the real economy.  A survey!  


For the Fed: the September CPI report, Producer Price Inflation (PPI), and a strong Jobs report, gives them little reason to deviate from their hawkish stance. 

Markets are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.75% next month, followed by another 0.50% increase in December. 

It's not good for bonds when you're compared to the years 1721 and 1865!!!

As always, let us know if you have any questions.


CRA Investment Committee 

Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®

Tom Reynolds, CPA 

Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®

Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP® 

Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®

Joe McCaffrey, CFP® 

Important Disclosure Information

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CRA Financial, LLC [“CRA]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CRA. Please remember to contact CRA, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CRA is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CRA’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.crafinancial.com. Please Note: IF you are a CRA client, Please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian. 

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your CRA account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your CRA accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Please Note: Limitations: Neither rankings and/or recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, publications, media, or other organizations, nor the achievement of any professional designation, certification, degree, or license, or any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if CRA is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser. Rankings are generally limited to participating advisers (to the extent applicable). Unless expressly indicated to the contrary, CRA did not pay a fee to be included on any such ranking. No ranking or recognition should be construed as a current or past endorsement of CRA by any of its clients. ANY QUESTIONS: CRA’s Chief Compliance Officer remains available to address any questions regarding rankings and/or recognitions, including the criteria used for any reflected ranking.

* https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ISO_12-21_BofA.pdf