Declaring a recession is almost academic at this point. The best-case scenario would be a continuation of this rolling recession, as it would mean there isn’t a complete bottoming-out all at once… When you have certain pockets that are weak, you’ve got offsetting pockets of strength.”
- Liz Ann Sonders
Last week's market recap:
- The S&P 500 closed the week up 2.71%. Year-to-date the index is up 4.22%
- NASDAQ closed the week up 4.83%. YTD the index is up 5.88%
- U.S. Aggregate Bond index was up .88% for the week. YTD the index is up 2.74%
- Fed Funds Target rate is 4.50%
- 10-Year Treasury Rate decreased, ending the week at 3.49% down from 3.55% the prior week.
- The 1-Year Treasury is yielding 4.70%
- A 6 Month Treasury is yielding 4.79%
- If your savings account is still under 1%, you may want to find a new savings account.
The week ahead:
- Earnings Season Continues: Big Banks, Proctor & Gamble, Netflix, American Airlines, Schlumberger, etc.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation data
- Retail Sales
- Housing Starts, Building permits, and Existing Home Sales
Inflation is decreasing:
We’re seeing a decrease in inflation. December’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) was in-line with expectations. Food prices are moderating. Energy prices declined. Goods inflation fell for the third straight month (Used car prices have declined 6 months in a row). Shelter prices remain elevated, but both new leases and home prices have been declining. The CPI for Shelter Inflation has historically lagged home price changes due to how long it takes for new leases to roll over into a new contract. So Shelter may continue to put upward pressure on CPI through the first half of 2023, but it should rolls over later this year.
Markets are expecting the Fed to slow their rate hikes to 25bps in February. The Fed will probably want to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before they pause. Jerome Powell has made it clear they don’t want to risk a second spike of inflation. An overly hawkish Fed certainly remains a risk to the markets. The short term may be challenging, but the long term outlook should be bright for both stocks and bonds.
2023 Financial Planning Notes:
- Later age for RMDs
- Bigger contribution limits on retirement accounts
- Higher income limit for Roth IRA contributions
- Increased Standard Deductions
- Higher Marginal Tax Bracket Thresholds
- 529 rollovers to Roth IRAs (requirements need to be met)
- Higher threshold for 0% long-term capital gains
As always, let us know if you have any questions.
CRA Investment Committee
Matt Reynolds CPA, CFP®
Tom Reynolds, CPA
Robert T. Martin, CFA, CFP®
Gordon Shearer Jr., CFP®
Jeff Hilliard, CFP®, CRPC®
Joe McCaffrey, CFP®
Important Disclosure Information
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CRA Financial, LLC [“CRA]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CRA. Please remember to contact CRA, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CRA is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of CRA’s current written Disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.crafinancial.com. Please Note: If you are a CRA client, please advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.
Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your CRA account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your CRA accounts; and, (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.
Please Note: Limitations: Neither rankings and/or recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, publications, media, or other organizations, nor the achievement of any professional designation, certification, degree, or license, or any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if CRA is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. Rankings published by magazines, and others, generally base their selections exclusively on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized adviser. Rankings are generally limited to participating advisers (to the extent applicable). Unless expressly indicated to the contrary, CRA did not pay a fee to be included on any such ranking. No ranking or recognition should be construed as a current or past endorsement of CRA by any of its clients. ANY QUESTIONS: CRA’s Chief Compliance Officer remains available to address any questions regarding rankings and/or recognitions, including the criteria used for any reflected ranking.